Incident: Trident Submarine Cybersecurity Vulnerability: Catastrophic Nuclear War Risk

Published Date: 2017-06-01

Postmortem Analysis
Timeline 1. The software failure incident involving the vulnerability of the UK's Trident submarine fleet to a catastrophic cyber-attack was reported in June 2017 based on the articles [59298, 59078].
System 1. Trident system's sensitive cyber systems, including networked computers, devices, and software [Article 59078, Article 59298]
Responsible Organization 1. Hackers [Article 59298, Article 59078]
Impacted Organization 1. The UK's nuclear weapons programme [Article 59298, Article 59078]
Software Causes 1. Injection of malicious software during routine maintenance and refurbishment of the Trident submarines, leading to potential cyber-attacks [59298, 59078] 2. Vulnerabilities in the Trident system's networked computers, devices, and software, making it susceptible to cyber interference [59298, 59078]
Non-software Causes 1. Lack of physical security measures to prevent unauthorized access to the submarines [59298, 59078] 2. Vulnerability during maintenance and refurbishment periods when the submarines are docked [59298, 59078] 3. Reliance on networked computers, devices, and software for various operations [59078]
Impacts 1. The software failure incident involving vulnerabilities in the UK's Trident submarine fleet could potentially lead to a 'catastrophic' cyber-attack, rendering Britain's nuclear weapons useless and risking devastating loss of life [Article 59298, Article 59078]. 2. The incident highlighted the potential for malicious software to be injected into submarines during maintenance, allowing for remote activation at critical moments, potentially leading to the neutralization of operations, loss of life, or even the catastrophic exchange of nuclear warheads [Article 59298, Article 59078]. 3. The report emphasized that despite submarines being air-gapped while on patrol, they are still vulnerable to cyber-attacks during maintenance periods when they are docked, as various systems within the submarines rely on networked computers, devices, and software that require regular upgrades and patches [Article 59078]. 4. The incident raised concerns about the overall cyber vulnerabilities in the Trident system, from design to decommissioning, and highlighted the need for significant investments in cybersecurity to strengthen the resilience of subcontractors, maintenance systems, components design, and software updates, which could cost the UK government several billions of pounds over the next 15 years [Article 59078].
Preventions 1. Implementing strict air-gapping measures to ensure that the submarines' sensitive cyber systems are not connected to the internet or any other civilian network, especially during maintenance periods [#59298, #59078]. 2. Regularly upgrading, reconfiguring, and patching all networked computers, devices, and software used in the Trident system to prevent vulnerabilities [#59078]. 3. Strengthening the resilience of subcontractors, maintenance systems, components design, and software updates to reduce cyber vulnerabilities at each stage of operation [#59078]. 4. Investing in cybersecurity measures and dedicating resources to protect critical digital systems at the heart of nuclear weapon systems from cyber-attacks [#59078]. 5. Conducting a massive and expensive operation to improve cybersecurity for the Trident programme to mitigate the risk of cyberwarfare [#59078].
Fixes 1. Strengthening the resilience of subcontractors, maintenance systems, components design, and software updates in the Trident system to reduce cyber vulnerabilities [59078]. 2. Implementing a massive and expensive operation to enhance cybersecurity in the Trident program, involving significant capital costs over the next 15 years [59078]. 3. Taking urgent action to address the cyber vulnerabilities at each stage of operation in the Trident system, from design to decommissioning [59078]. 4. Ensuring that critical digital systems in nuclear weapon systems are not complacently assumed to be immune to cyber-attacks and require dedicated teams of network managers for protection [59078]. 5. Recognizing the potential catastrophic consequences of cyber-attacks on nuclear weapon systems and the need for proactive measures to prevent such incidents [59298, 59078].
References 1. British American Security Information Council (BASIC) [Article 59298, Article 59078] 2. Ministry of Defence [Article 59078] 3. Des Browne, former UK Defence Secretary [Article 59298, Article 59078] 4. Stanislav Abaimov, researcher in cybersecurity and electronic engineering at the University of Rome [Article 59078] 5. Paul Ingram, Basic’s executive director [Article 59078]

Software Taxonomy of Faults

Category Option Rationale
Recurring one_organization, multiple_organization (a) The software failure incident related to the vulnerability of the UK's Trident submarine fleet to a catastrophic cyber-attack has happened again within the same organization. The incident involves the potential exploitation of security flaws in the UK's nuclear weapons program, specifically in the Trident system, which could lead to devastating consequences if successfully attacked by hackers [Article 59298, Article 59078]. (b) The software failure incident related to the vulnerability of the UK's Trident submarine fleet to a catastrophic cyber-attack has also been a concern for other organizations or systems. The report highlights the broader issue of cyber vulnerabilities in critical systems, emphasizing the need for enhanced cybersecurity measures not only for the Trident program but also for other systems that rely on networked computers, devices, and software [Article 59298, Article 59078].
Phase (Design/Operation) design, operation (a) The software failure incident related to the design phase is highlighted in the articles. The vulnerability of the UK's Trident submarine fleet to a catastrophic cyber-attack is attributed to flaws in the system's design and development. The British American Security Information Council (BASIC) report points out dangerous security flaws in the UK's nuclear weapons program, emphasizing that the Trident system is undeniably vulnerable to cyber interference due to its reliance on numerous computers, complex software, and endless lines of code [59298, 59078]. (b) The software failure incident related to the operation phase is also discussed in the articles. The report mentions that even though submarines on patrol are air-gapped and not connected to the internet, they are vulnerable to the introduction of malware at other points, such as during maintenance while docked at the Faslane naval base in Scotland. This highlights a potential failure due to contributing factors introduced by the operation or maintenance of the system [59078].
Boundary (Internal/External) within_system (a) within_system: The software failure incident related to the vulnerability of the UK's Trident submarine fleet to a catastrophic cyber-attack is primarily within the system. The vulnerability arises from within the system itself, as the submarines, although air-gapped while on patrol, rely on networked computers, devices, and software that need to be regularly upgraded, reconfigured, and patched [Article 59078]. The report by the British American Security Information Council (BASIC) highlights that the submarines are vulnerable to the introduction of malware at points such as during maintenance while docked at the Faslane naval base in Scotland, indicating internal system vulnerabilities [Article 59078]. The incident is a result of weaknesses in the design, programming, and maintenance of the Trident system's cyber systems, which are integral parts of the submarines and their operations [Article 59078].
Nature (Human/Non-human) non-human_actions (a) The software failure incident occurring due to non-human actions: The articles report on the vulnerability of the UK's Trident submarine fleet to a catastrophic cyber-attack that could render Britain's nuclear weapons useless. The vulnerability is attributed to security flaws in the Trident system, particularly the introduction of malware into the submarines' systems during maintenance and refurbishment periods. This malware could lie dormant and be activated remotely at critical moments, potentially allowing rival states to disable nuclear arms during times of war [59298, 59078]. (b) The software failure incident occurring due to human actions: The articles do not specifically mention any software failure incident occurring due to human actions.
Dimension (Hardware/Software) hardware, software (a) The software failure incident related to hardware: - The articles discuss the vulnerability of the UK's Trident submarine fleet to a catastrophic cyber-attack that could render Britain's nuclear weapons useless. This vulnerability is attributed to the introduction of malware into the submarines' systems during maintenance while docked at the Faslane naval base in Scotland [Article 59078]. - The report highlights that even though submarines on patrol are air-gapped and not connected to the internet, they are vulnerable to cyber-attacks at other points, such as during maintenance when they are docked. The submarines, missiles, warheads, and support systems rely on networked computers, devices, and software, which need to be regularly upgraded, reconfigured, and patched, making them susceptible to cyber vulnerabilities [Article 59078]. (b) The software failure incident related to software: - The software failure incident is primarily attributed to security flaws in the UK's nuclear weapons program, which could allow hackers to take control of Trident submarines and potentially start a catastrophic nuclear war. The security flaws mentioned in the articles point to vulnerabilities in the software systems of the submarines that could be exploited by injecting malicious software during maintenance periods [Article 59298]. - The report by the British American Security Information Council (BASIC) emphasizes that the Trident system, which relies on numerous computers, complex software, and lines of code, is undeniably vulnerable to cyber interference. The report warns about the potential consequences of a security breach, including the neutralization of operations, loss of life, and the catastrophic exchange of nuclear warheads, all stemming from software vulnerabilities [Article 59298].
Objective (Malicious/Non-malicious) malicious (a) The software failure incident related to the Trident submarine fleet vulnerability to a cyber-attack is considered malicious. The incident involves the potential for hackers to exploit security flaws in the UK's nuclear weapons program by injecting malicious software into the submarines during maintenance and refurbishment, allowing for remote activation at critical moments [59298, 59078]. The report by the British American Security Information Council (BASIC) highlights the catastrophic consequences that could result from such a cyber-attack, including the neutralization of operations, loss of life, and the potential for a catastrophic exchange of nuclear warheads [59298, 59078]. The incident is characterized by the deliberate attempt to compromise the security and functionality of the Trident system for harmful purposes.
Intent (Poor/Accidental Decisions) poor_decisions (a) The intent of the software failure incident: The software failure incident related to the vulnerability of the UK's Trident submarine fleet to a catastrophic cyber-attack was primarily due to poor decisions. The incident was a result of dangerous security flaws in the UK's nuclear weapons program, which could potentially lead to devastating consequences if exploited by hackers [59298, 59078]. The failure was exacerbated by complacency and false claims by officials that the submarines were safe from hacking while at sea, despite the vulnerabilities present during maintenance and refurbishment periods when the submarines could be injected with malicious software [59298, 59078]. Additionally, the report highlighted the need for a massive and expensive operation to strengthen the resilience of subcontractors, maintenance systems, components design, and software updates to mitigate the cyber vulnerabilities in the Trident system [59078].
Capability (Incompetence/Accidental) development_incompetence, accidental (a) The software failure incident related to development incompetence is evident in the articles. The British American Security Information Council (BASIC) pointed out dangerous security flaws in the UK's nuclear weapons program, highlighting the vulnerability of the Trident submarine fleet to cyber-attacks [59298, 59078]. The report emphasized that despite claims that the submarines are safe from hacking while at sea, the vessels are vulnerable to cyber threats during maintenance and refurbishment when they could be injected with malicious software. This vulnerability indicates a lack of professional competence in ensuring the security of the Trident system against cyber threats. (b) The software failure incident related to accidental factors is also apparent in the articles. The report by BASIC warned that a successful cyber-attack on the Trident submarine fleet could lead to catastrophic consequences, including the neutralization of operations, loss of life, or even the exchange of nuclear warheads [59298, 59078]. The accidental introduction of malware during maintenance or other vulnerable points could compromise the Trident system's security, indicating that such failures could occur unintentionally due to the complex nature of maintaining and upgrading networked computers, devices, and software within the system.
Duration permanent, temporary The software failure incident related to the vulnerability of the UK's Trident submarine fleet to a catastrophic cyber-attack can be considered as both a permanent and temporary failure. (a) Permanent: The vulnerability of the Trident submarine fleet to a catastrophic cyber-attack can be seen as a permanent failure due to the inherent design and operational vulnerabilities that exist in the system. The report highlights that the submarines, while on patrol, are air-gapped and not connected to the internet, which has led officials to claim that Trident is safe from hacking. However, the report from the British American Security Information Council (BASIC) points out that this claim is false and complacent, indicating a permanent vulnerability in the system [Article 59078]. (b) Temporary: On the other hand, the vulnerability can also be seen as a temporary failure as the submarines are only at sea part of the time and are vulnerable to the introduction of malware at other points, such as during maintenance while docked at the Faslane naval base in Scotland. This temporary vulnerability arises during specific circumstances, such as when the submarines are not at sea and are undergoing maintenance or refurbishment, making them susceptible to cyber-attacks [Article 59078].
Behaviour omission, value, other (a) crash: The articles do not specifically mention a software crash where the system loses state and does not perform any of its intended functions. (b) omission: The software failure incident mentioned in the articles is related to the potential omission of performing intended functions. The vulnerability highlighted in the articles suggests that a cyber-attack could lead to the neutralization of operations, loss of life, or even the catastrophic exchange of nuclear warheads [Article 59298, Article 59078]. (c) timing: The articles do not mention a software failure incident related to the system performing its intended functions correctly but at the wrong time. (d) value: The software failure incident discussed in the articles is related to the potential incorrect performance of the system's intended functions. The concern is that a successful cyber-attack could render Britain's nuclear weapons useless, indicating a failure in the system's value [Article 59298, Article 59078]. (e) byzantine: The articles do not describe a byzantine behavior where the system behaves erroneously with inconsistent responses and interactions. (f) other: The software failure incident described in the articles involves the potential compromise of the Trident submarine fleet's cybersecurity, which could have severe consequences such as loss of life and rendering nuclear weapons ineffective. This could be categorized as a critical security flaw rather than a specific type of software failure behavior [Article 59298, Article 59078].

IoT System Layer

Layer Option Rationale
Perception sensor, processing_unit, network_communication, embedded_software (a) sensor: The articles discuss the vulnerability of the Trident submarine fleet to cyber-attacks, which could potentially render Britain's nuclear weapons useless. The submarines are air-gapped while on patrol, meaning they are not connected to the internet or other networks. However, they are vulnerable to the introduction of malware at other points, such as during maintenance while docked at the Faslane naval base in Scotland. This indicates a potential sensor-related failure due to contributing factors introduced by sensor error [Article 59078]. (b) actuator: The articles do not specifically mention any failure related to actuator error. (c) processing_unit: The articles highlight that the Trident system relies on networked computers, devices, and software, which need to be designed, programmed, upgraded, reconfigured, and patched. The report points out cyber vulnerabilities at each stage of operation, from design to decommissioning, indicating a potential failure due to contributing factors introduced by processing error [Article 59078]. (d) network_communication: The articles emphasize that the Trident submarines are air-gapped while on patrol, not connected to the internet or other networks, except when receiving very simple data from outside. However, they are vulnerable to the introduction of malware at other points, such as during maintenance while docked at the Faslane naval base in Scotland. This suggests a potential failure due to contributing factors introduced by network communication error [Article 59078]. (e) embedded_software: The articles discuss the reliance of the Trident system on networked computers, devices, and software, which must be designed, programmed, upgraded, reconfigured, and patched. The report highlights cyber vulnerabilities in the Trident system at each stage of operation, indicating a potential failure due to contributing factors introduced by embedded software error [Article 59078].
Communication connectivity_level The software failure incident related to the communication layer of the cyber physical system that failed is at the connectivity_level. Both articles [59298, 59078] discuss how the Trident submarine fleet's vulnerability to cyber-attacks could render Britain's nuclear weapons useless. The articles highlight that the submarines' sensitive cyber systems are not connected to the internet or any civilian network, but they rely on networked computers, devices, and software for operation. The vulnerability arises during maintenance while the submarines are docked, where malware could be introduced into the system. This indicates that the failure is related to contributing factors introduced by the network or transport layer, rather than the physical layer.
Application FALSE The software failure incident related to the Trident submarine fleet being vulnerable to a catastrophic cyber-attack is not directly related to the application layer of the cyber physical system. The vulnerability stemmed from potential cyber-attacks that could compromise the operations and security of the submarines, particularly during maintenance or refurbishment periods, by injecting malicious software into the systems [Article 59298, Article 59078]. This type of vulnerability is more related to cybersecurity threats and potential breaches rather than failures at the application layer of the system.

Other Details

Category Option Rationale
Consequence theoretical_consequence (a) death: People lost their lives due to the software failure - The articles discuss the potential consequence of a software failure incident in the context of the UK's Trident submarine fleet being vulnerable to a catastrophic cyber-attack. It is warned that such an attack could lead to "loss of life" [Article 59298, Article 59078]. However, there is no specific mention of actual deaths resulting from a software failure incident in the articles.
Domain information, transportation, government (a) The failed system was related to the industry of information as it involved the security flaws in the UK's nuclear weapons program, specifically the Trident submarines, which are crucial for national defense and security [59298, 59078]. (b) The failed system also indirectly impacts the transportation industry as the Trident submarines are part of the UK's defense strategy and play a role in ensuring maritime security [59298, 59078]. (l) The failed system is directly related to the government industry as it involves the security and defense of the nation through the Trident nuclear weapons program, which is a government initiative [59298, 59078].

Sources

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